2 years on, where is Blockchain?

(and my first blog post here)

So here we go, I finally got around to publish my first article on my (paying) blog on WordPress.

I registered this domain 2 years ago because, in the boredom that is Finnish winter (and Finnish summer, and everything sitting at 60° N of Latitude)I had to do something, but somehow I never got around to really do anything with it.

Also because, being an auditor by vocation rather than profession (professional skepticism is a way of life yo!) I started to doubt my choice, and everything connected with Block-chain, as soon as I registered this domain.

My initial idea was to do something connected with block-chain technologies, and specifically an application connected to physical trading. So enters Chainergy.

I have to say, as a name, was not really that original. But now I have it, and I must do something with it, or?

So I will use it to ramble.   A little bit like with my LinkedIn profile, but more freely since I do not have my inclusive-politically-correct-party-pooping HR department snooping on this site that no one reads. Plus this is my website and I can do whatever I want with it.  This place is for my opinions and for the opinions of…whoever I find interesting, even if I do not agree with. So feel free to click somewhere else, shall anything that I write offend you.

So Block-chain. I can give myself a virtual pat on the back for having a pretty decent intuition back in 2017. This is what I wrote back then (full article here https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blockchain-really-going-revolutionize-commodity-trading-senatore-1/)

These previous considerations can already lead us to conclude that the adoption of a true and comprehensive blockchain environment in which traders and commodity users will move in the future is not necessary so near neither easily attainable. Or even desirable for that matter  (Myself, October 31, 2017)

In the end, when there is too much hype, something smells. In this case it smelled of BS of the tallest order,  as the difference between the supposed “disruption” that the chain would bring to every facet of the business life, and the value of investment in this category.

Most of the (smallish) projects, especially in the commodity space, have been quietly wound down and disappeared from companies press releases. And even in the wider world, the cake is, per Bloomberg, not as big as the hype would have suggested. We are talking, according to the latest data, to a market worth about 700 USD mil. Dominated, I suppose to the chagrin of all the blockchain/cryptocurrency evangelists out there, by IBM and Microsoft, go figure.

But at the end of the day, if 2 giants like Microsoft and IBM are still in the game, how can blockchain be entirely BS?

The answer is, as usual, It depends.

Blockchain is evolving and in many areas is showing potential.

Problem is

1. Said potential is not just as big as hyped
2. The protocol was supposed to reduce transaction costs and increase transparency. And it does not.

What I mean with the above? The potential is there; however we have not yet exactly figured out how to harvest it in practice because, standards of course. Every vendor uses its own standard and most company do not like to be held by the balls by a software company or a consultant.

Plus all this promise of transparency and reduced costs needs to be weighed against the alternatives.

And here it seems  that the technology is less shiny than the evangelists were saying, i.e. Costs are not lower, at least for now and the immediate future, than other alternatives.

This because the lack of standardisation and the ridiculous amount of computational power required.

Plus, especially in commodities, the transparency is not necessarily welcome (how are traders going to make money, otherwise?). Also, coders, in their incommensurate faith in their profession forgot a small detail: when things work, often they do not need a fix. Or more broadly, if you offer me a fix to a problem I did not know I had, it better work really well. Which leads us to the final point: implementation matter. If everyone and their dogs keep on chasing “the great new thing” they forget to learn how to make it work. Implementation is going to be the key for the chain to flourish. If coders and consultants stop BS’itting us and let the people who know what they talk about explain to them how all this “trading” thing works. In every nook and cranny.

So welcome to my new Venture. This is Chainergy. A place where we intend to do exactly this. Cut through Bullshit and, hopefully, spread some good knowledge.